in which of these countries would you be most likely to find an armed conflict?

Nor are the U.S., Europe, or other donors likely to devote the requisite amount of high-level, continuous attention or resources on regional conflicts far away as they confront economic, social, and political havoc at home. The lines separating economic dissatisfaction from social unrest, and social unrest from outbreaks of violence, are thin. In Sudan, Lebanon, and Venezuela, to mention but a few examples, one can expect the number of unemployed to grow, real incomes to collapse, governments to face mounting difficulties paying security forces, and the general population to increasingly rely on state support at a time when states are least equipped to provide it. Although income levels do not directly correlate with conflict, violence is more likely during periods of economic volatility. The pandemic has precipitated a global economic crisis without precedent since World War II, with an additional 150 million people being driven below the extreme poverty line.

Longer-term ramifications are a different matter. Although several low-income countries were hit badly, many were not diplomatic activity, international mediation, peacekeeping missions, and financial support to vulnerable populations suffered, but it’s questionable whether COVID-19 dramatically affected the trajectory of major wars, be they in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, or elsewhere. When the pandemic first broke out, many – myself included – feared that it would have immediate, potentially devastating consequences in developing countries, especially those facing deadly conflict. In 2021, the world will be dealing with the aftermath and sifting through the debris. If there were a contest for the 2020 event with the most far-reaching implications for global peace and security, the field would be crowded.įrom the coronavirus pandemic to climate change’s growing impact, the Trump administration’s scorched-earth policies after Joe Biden’s election, the Azerbaijani-Armenian war over Nagorno-Karabakh, and a deadly conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, it has been an eventful year.

Click here for the 2022 edition of 10 Conflicts to Watch.

In which of these countries would you be most likely to find an armed conflict?